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Bullwhip Effect

Measure demand signal distortion upstream.

If you don't have variances, calculate the "Bullwhip Ratio" simply by comparing fluctuation range.

The Bullwhip Effect

The Bullwhip Effect describes how small fluctuations in demand at the retail level can cause progressively larger fluctuations in demand at the wholesale, distributor, manufacturer, and raw material supplier levels.

A factor > 1 means demand is being amplified upstream. This leads to excessive inventory buildup (overstock) followed by stockouts. It is typically caused by lack of visibility, batch ordering, and price fluctuations.